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  • Emerging Markets Navigate Global Interest Rate Volatility - IMF
    Should this prove wrong, investors may once again reprice in higher-for-longer rates, weighing on risky asset prices, including emerging market stocks and bonds A slowdown in emerging markets, as projected by the latest World Economic Outlook update, operates not only through traditional trade channels, but also through financial channels
  • Exchange rates, credit default swaps and market volatility of . . .
    By including market risk, which leads to excess exchange-rate returns and defaultable foreign bonds, in the model, we show that the exchange-rate change is determined by the differential between excess returns due to market risk and the riskless interest rate, as well as the default premium on the foreign bond, as follows 2: (1) Δ s t + 1
  • Emerging markets: which sovereign debts are most vulnerable . . .
    Investment outflows from non-residents have the potential to generate high volatility in bond yields and especially in exchange rates, due to the direct impact of local currency securities sales on the local foreign exchange market Sovereign borrowers of South Africa and Malaysia, whose local currency debt held by non-residents reached 16% and
  • 2025 Emerging Market Fixed Income Outlook | PineBridge . . .
    After campaigning on promises of an “America First” trade stance, President Trump’s opening moves are likely to cause market volatility for emerging market (EM) assets Nevertheless, emerging markets are a diverse group of countries, and a closer analysis at the local level gives us confidence in the positive credit trajectory across EM
  • Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
    Argentina predicting high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of con? sumption relative to output, and negative correlations of output with interest rates and the trade balance (JEL E21, E23, E32, E43, F34, Oil, 019) Emerging markets tend to have volatile business cycles and experience economic crises more
  • Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default . . .
    a sovereign default model can not only account for the high average volatility of emerging markets’ interest rates, but also for its cyclical properties Our paper contributes to two main strands of the literature First, we contribute to the literature on time-varying volatility in macroeconomics In EMEs,Fernandez-Villaverde et
  • Default, Transition, and Recovery: Emerging Market Defaults . . .
    The 2022 global corporate default tally remains at 10, with no defaults since our last report on Feb 24 The total also remains well below the 18 defaults during the same period in 2021 Emerging markets is the only region where defaults so far in 2022 (four) are higher than the previous year (two) as risks in the region are increasing The Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens to keep energy





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